In Karnali Province, 38% of polling stations have been categorized as highly sensitive. The schedule for the House of Representatives election to be held on 5 March has been finalized. Of the 961 polling stations in Karnali, 363 are classified as highly sensitive, 429 as sensitive, and 169 as normal, according to the district pre-assessment prepared by the Karnali Provincial Office of the Informal Sector Service Centre (INSEC).
Narayan Subedi, the Coordinator of the INSEC Karnali Province Office, stated that the assessment shows 38% of polling stations are highly sensitive and 45% are sensitive. According to Subedi, this is due to difficult geography, political instability, dissatisfaction following the Gen-Z protest, inadequate security arrangements, and cold weather. The report highlights the need for special security preparations to ensure peaceful elections in Karnali.
The report prepared on the basis of the political environment, security challenges, administrative readiness, and the condition of voters shows that nearly 83% of polling stations across the province are found to be at higher than normal risk. According to the report prepared on the basis of the political environment, security challenges, administrative readiness, and the situation of voters, nearly 83 percent of polling stations across the province are more than normally vulnerable.
Surkhet has 138 polling stations within its two House of Representatives constituencies. Among them, 20 are highly sensitive, 85 are sensitive, and 34 are normal. According to 2022 data, there are 244,714 voters in the district. The participation in voting may decline due to the Gen-Z protest, the possibility of clashes during political rallies, and youths migrating to India for employment. It also highlights high political competition and challenges related to crowd management in the district.
Dailekh has two electoral constituencies. Out of 139 polling stations, 46 are categorized as highly sensitive, 68 as sensitive, and 25 as normal. The report states that local political disputes, difficulties in reaching polling centers, lack of voter education, and the influence of local leadership have emerged as key challenges in the election. It also notes risks associated with the district’s geography and political dynamics.
In Kalikot, 103 polling stations, of which 74 are categorized as highly sensitive, 28 as sensitive, and 2 as normal. The report states that due to the effects of the conflict period and geographical difficulties, there are challenges in transporting election materials and ensuring security.
In Jumla, among 83 polling stations, 63 are highly sensitive, 24 are sensitive, and 21 are normal. The presence of 10 prisoners who absconded after the Gen-Z protest has posed a security challenge. Snowfall, cold weather, and communication disruptions have increased risks during the election.
In Mugu, out of 64 polling stations, 30 are categorized as highly sensitive, 20 as sensitive, and 16 as normal. The report states that the winter season, migration, and the absence of youths who have gone to India for work may reduce voter turnout. Additionally, a lack of communication and transportation has been identified as major challenges for the election.
In Humla, out of 60 polling stations, 27 are highly sensitive, 21 are sensitive, and 10 are normal. Due to the polling stations being near the China border, special security plans are required. Helicopters may need to be used to transport election materials.
In Dolpa, out of 66 polling stations, 23 are highly sensitive, 26 are sensitive, and 17 are normal. The report notes that due to cold winter weather, transportation issues, and scattered settlements, it will be difficult for voters to reach polling centers.
In Rukum Paschim, out of 76 polling stations, 21 are highly sensitive, 43 are sensitive, and 12 are normal. Key security challenges include competition within the former Maoist groups, possible clashes due to the Janardan Sharma faction, and 16 fugitives from the Gen-Z protest.
In Jajarkot, out of 85 polling stations, 16 are highly sensitive, 57 are sensitive, and 15 are normal. Voter interest is low due to post-earthquake reconstruction, and geographic and accessibility issues add to management challenges.
In Salyan, out of 117 polling stations, 43 are highly sensitive, 57 are sensitive, and 17 are normal. Main challenges include access issues for senior citizens and persons with disabilities, as well as weak voter education.
Karnali Province has 12 House of Representatives constituencies. There are two constituencies each in Surkhet and Dailekh, while the other districts have one constituency each.
Since most polling stations in Karnali are considered high-risk, the report concludes that coordination for security, administrative preparedness, transportation of election materials, voter education, and cooperation among political parties are essential. Major challenges for the elections include winter conditions, migration, dissatisfaction following the Gen-Z protest , illegal weapons, political competition, and communication disruptions. The Election Commission has stated that further details will be released once the final voter numbers, polling stations, and centers are updated.