Maoist Insurgency and Theory of Probability

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Maoist insurgency is undoubtedly the major issue that has to be resolved before the country can take steps forward in any direction. Nepal has been paid much for this. It is high time both the Maoists and the government should leave the path of violence and negotiate with each other. It should be solved by peaceful means.

Can there be any meaningful relation between Maoist insurgency and the theory of probability? Yes, there can be. The knowledge of theory of probability will be effective in handling the negotiation and peace talk process.
Now I want to draw our attention about theory of probability. If an experiment is repeated under essentially homogeneous and similar conditions we generally come across two types of situations. One is: the result or what is usually known as the outcome is unique or certain. And, another is: the result is not unique but may be one of the several possible outcomes. The phenomena covered by first one are known as deterministic or predictable phenomena where as those that do not lend those to deterministic approach are known as unpredictable or probabilistic phenomena.

For example: In tossing of a coin one is not sure if a head or tail will be obtained. The study of probability refers to problems related to the chance of occurrence of certain outcomes such as chance for a person to win the game and so on. The Maoist rebels and the government are being entangled in an afflicting game plan and the outcome has not been predicted yet.

In such case we talk of chance or probability, which is taken to be a quantitative measure of certainty. The theory of probability goes back to over more than three centuries. An Italian mathematician Galileo (1564-1642) introduced it while dealing with some problems in connections with games of chance. But the first foundation of the mathematical theory of probability was laid in the mid-seventeenth century by two French mathematicians, B. Pascal and P. Fermat, while solving a number of problems posed by French gambler and noble man Chevalier-De-Mere to Pascal.

We can consider present situation of Nepal as an experiment, which may result in any one of the several possible outcomes. In the term of the theory of probability, the experiment is known as a trail and the outcomes are known as events or cases. The Maoist insurgency can be termed as trail and the possible result as event. We should take account of exhaustive events, that is, the total number of possible outcomes in any trail. Both the government and the Maoist rebels should be aware of about exhaustive events of present conflict.

Can our country afford such an insurgency for longer time period? Are present institution and Maoist rebel mutually exclusive events? Events are said to be mutually exclusive or incompatible if the happening of any one of them precludes the happening of all the others, i.e., if no two or more of them can happen simultaneously in the same trail. Or are they equally likely events? In the theory of probability outcomes of a trail are said to be equally likely if taking into consideration all the relevant evidences, there is no reason to expect one is preference to the others. Or are they able to exist simultaneously?

Without having a clear-cut answer in these regard the effort done in the negotiation or peace talk would be irrelevant. A country like ours cannot afford such an insurgency, continued political unrest and a situation of civil war. There is no alternative other than having peace talk, negotiations and political reform. We have to create a conductive atmosphere for finding a safe way out of the present crisis.

Nrimala Mani Adhikary
February 7, 2006